The Nexus Between Trade Liberalisation and Poverty Reduction in South Africa: An Empirical ARDL Analysis (1993–2024)

Abstract

South Africa (SA) remains one of the largest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), yet poverty persists despite extensive post-1994 trade liberalisation. This study examines the dynamic relationship between trade liberalisation and poverty reduction using annual data for the period 1993–2024. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is applied to estimate both long-run relationships and short-run dynamics. Poverty is measured using the upper-bound poverty line, lower-bound poverty line, and food poverty line. Trade liberalisation is proxied by total trade openness, while control variables include foreign direct investment, inflation, unemployment, GDP per capita growth, and a global financial crisis dummy for the period 2008–2009. The results confirm a stable long-run relationship across all models. Trade liberalisation consistently reduces poverty, although the effect is weaker for food poverty. Inflation increases poverty, with particularly strong long-run effects on lower-bound and food poverty, highlighting the sensitivity of poor households to rising living costs. GDP per capita growth contributes to poverty reduction, especially at the food poverty threshold. The effects of unemployment and foreign direct investment are mixed. Persistent unemployment increases food poverty over time, while foreign direct investment is associated with weaker poverty reduction outcomes due to its concentration in capital-intensive sectors and limited labour absorption. The findings indicate that trade-led poverty reduction depends on complementary policies that address key transmission constraints. Policy should prioritise stabilising food-related costs to protect households near the food poverty line, promoting labour-absorbing sectors to strengthen employment outcomes from trade, and aligning foreign direct investment policy towards investment with strong domestic linkages and employment-creation effects.

Afrika Borwa (SA) e sa dutše e le ye nngwe ya diikonomi tše kgolo ka Afrika ya Borwa bja Sahara (SSA), le ge go le bjalo bohloki bo tšwela pele ntle le maitapišo a magolo a tokollo ya kgwebišano go tloga ka 1994. Nyakišišo ye e nyakišišitše kamano ye e fetogago gare ga tokollo ya kgwebišano le phokotšo ya bohloki ka go šomiša datha ya ngwaga le ngwaga go tloga ka 1993 go fihla go 2024. Foreimiweke ya teko ya tšhalelo ya magomo ao a phatlaladitšwego ya autoregressive (ARDL) e šomišitšwe go akanya bobedi dikamano tša nako ye telele le dipeakanyo tša nako ye kopana. Bohloki bo elwa ka go šomiša tlemo ya godimo (upper-bound), tlemo ya fase (lower bound) le maemo a bohloki (poverty lines), mola tokollo ya kgwebišano e emetšwe ke go bulega ga kgwebišano ka botlalo. Mmotlolo o akaretša gape dipeeletšo tša thwii tša dinaga tša ka ntle, infoleišene, tlhokego ya mešomo, kgolo ya GDP ka motho, le phetogo ya bofora yeo e swarago nako ya 2008–2009 ya mathata a ditšhelete a lefase ka bophara bjalo ka mabaka a taolo. Dipoelo di laetša kamano ye e tsepamego ya nako ye telele go ralala le dimotlolo ka moka tše di akantšwego. Tokologo ya kgwebišano e tlaleletša ka go se fetoge phokotšong ya bohloki, le ge e le gore khuetšo ya yona e fokola ge e bapetšwa le bohloki bja dijo. Infoleišene e na le mafelelo a go oketša bohloki, ka ditlamorago tše maatla kudu tša nako ye telele go bohloki bja mellwane ya fase le ya dijo, go laetša go hlaselega gabonolo ga malapa ao a phelago bohloking go ditshenyegelo tša bophelo tše di hlatlogago. Kgolo ya GDP ka motho e thekga phokotšo ya bohloki, kudu go bogomo bja bohloki bja dijo. Ditlamorago tša tlhokego ya mešomo le peeletšo ya thwii ya dinaga tša ka ntle di kopantšwe: tlhokego ya mešomo ye e tšwelagopele e oketša bohloki bja dijo ge nako e dutše e sepela, mola peeletšo ya thwii ya dinaga tša ka ntle e amana le dipoelo tše di fokolago tša go fokotša bohloki, e laetša go tsepama ga yona ka makaleng ao a šomišago tšhelete ye ntši ao a nago le dikgoba tše nnyane tša mošomo. Dikutollo di šišinya gore ditlamorago tša go fokotša bodiidi tša kgwebišano di ithekgile ka melawana ya tlaleletšo yeo e lebanego le dithibelo tše bohlokwa tša phetišetšo. Pholisi e swanetše go etiša pele go tsepamiša ditshenyegelo tša dijo go šireletša malapa ao a kgobokanego go dikologa maemo a bohloki bja dijo, go tšwetša pele makala a go fa mešomo go godiša dipoelo tša mešomo go tšwa go kgwebišano, le go lebiša leswa pholisi ya dipeeletšo tša thwii tša dinaga tša ka ntle go ya go mešongwana yeo e nago le dikgokagano tše maatla tša ka nageng le bokgoni bjo bogolo bja tlhomo ya mešomo.

INingizimu Afrika (SA) isaqhubeka nokuba yizwe elenza kahle kwezomnotho e-Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), nakuba ububha busaqhubeka nokubakhona phezu kwemizamo eminingi yokukhululwa kohwebo kusukela ngonyaka we-1994. Lolu cwaningo luhlole ubudlelwano obuguquguqukayo phakathi kokukhululwa kohwebo nokuncishiswa kobubha kusetshenziswa idatha yonyaka kusukela ngonyaka we-1993 kuya kowezi-2024. Uhlaka lokuhlola lwe-autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) lwasetshenziswa ukulinganisa ubudlelwano besikhathi eside kanye nezinguquko zesikhathi esifushane. Ububha bukhonjiswa ngokusebenzisa izinga eliphezulu, izinga eliphansi, kanye nezinga lobubha ngesikhathi ukukhululwa kohwebo kumelwa ukuvuleleka kokuhweba okuphelele. Le modeli iphinde ihlanganise ukutshalwa kwezimali ngqo kwamanye amazwe, ukunyuka kwentengo, ukungasebenzi, ukukhula kwe-GDP ngomuntu ngamunye, kanye nohlobo olutshengisa isikhathi sobunzima bezezimali emhlabeni-jikele phakathi konyaka wezi -2008 nowezi-2009 njengenye yezinto ezilawula ubunzima bomnotho. Imiphumela ikhombisa ukuthi kunobudlelwano obuzinzile besikhathi eside kuwo wonke amamodeli alinganisiwe. Ukukhululwa kohwebo kunomthelela oqhubekayo ekuncishisweni kobubha, nakuba umthelela wakhona uthanda ukuntengantenga mayelana nokwentuleka kokudla. Ukwenyuka kwentengo kunesandla ekunyuseni izinga lobubha, ikakhulukazi ngokuba nemiphumela enamandla yesikhathi eside emazingeni aphansi kanye nokwentuleka kokudla, okugqamisa ubuthakathaka bemindeni ehlaselwe ububha ngenxa yokunyuka kwezindleko zokuphila. Ukukhula kwe-GDP ngomuntu ngamunye kuyalekeleka ekunciphiseni ububha, ikakhulukazi ezingeni lokwentuleka kokudla. Imiphumela yokungabi namisebenzi kanye notshalozimali lwangaphandle luyingxubevange: ukungabi nemisebenzi okuqhubekayo kwandisa ukwentuleka kokudla ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, kanti utshalozimali lwangaphandle luxhumene nemiphumela yokwehlisa ububha entekenteke, eveza ukugxila kwayo emikhakheni edinga imali eningi nengasebenzisi abasebenzi abaningi. Imiphumela iveza ukuthi umthelela wokuncishiswa kobubha ngokuhweba incike kwizinqubomgomo ezihambisanayo ezibhekana nezithiyo ezibalulekile zokudluliswa. Inqubomgomo kufanele igxile ekunciphiseni izindleko zokudla ukuze kuvikelwe imindeni empintshene ngenxa yokwentuleka kokudla, kuthuthukiswe imikhakha eqasha abantu ukuze kwandiswe amathuba emisebenzi avela ekuhwebeni, kanye nokuqondiswa kabusha inqubomgomo yokutshalwa kwezimali zakwamanye amazwe emisebenzini enezixhumanisi eziqinile zasendaweni kanye namandla amakhulu okudala amathuba emisebenzi.