Institutional quality, financial inclusion and economic growth : evidence from selected Sub-Saharan African countries

Abstract

This study's main goal was to examine the relationship between institutional quality, financial inclusion, and economic growth in selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 2004 to 2020. The rationale was to empirically establish the role that institutional quality and financial inclusion play in driving Sub-Saharan African economic growth. This was necessary due to the unstable economic growth rates that the SSA countries have experienced and which have prevented the region from moving toward sustainable development. Despite having enormous amounts of physical, human, and natural resources, the region has had growth rates that have fluctuated between 4 and 6 percent annually for the past 20 years, making it less developed. According to figures from the World Bank and the OECD, Sub-Saharan Africa's combined GDP growth, which peaked at 6.37 percent in 2002, plunged to 1.24 percent in 2016 before making a little recovery to 2.28 percent in 2019 and then slipping into negative growth in 2020. Previous research has focused on the economic causes of growth, with little emphasis paid to institutional quality and financial inclusion as proximate causes, which could explain Sub-Saharan Africa's underwhelming growth. The Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) and panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approaches, as well as panel Error Correction Models (ECM), were utilised to examine the deterministic relationships, long-run and short-run cointegration and causality linkages, respectively, between institutional quality, financial inclusion and economic growth in the sampled SSA countries. We constructed an institutional quality index and a financial inclusion index using Principal Components Analysis (PCA). The findings showed that the combined effects of financial inclusion, institutional quality, as well as the inflation rate, trade openness, unemployment rate, investment expenditure, literacy level, and total natural resource rent, affect economic growth in the selected SSA nations. The study also confirmed that there were great differences in the mean value of economic growth between the times of the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis relative to times when those significant disruptions had not occurred. The results of the two-step system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) analysis revealed significant relationship between institutional quality, financial inclusion, and the control variables and economic growth in the selected countries, though the strength of this deterministic relationship (positive or negative) was largely dependent on the method used to measure economic growth. The findings of the panel ARDL cointegration test indicated that economic growth, financial inclusion, and institutional quality were positively correlated over the long term in the selected SSA nations. The outcomes of the panel causality tests demonstrated long-run bi-directional causality of the variables, as evidenced by the substantial causative relationship between economic growth and institutional quality in both the short-run and long-run timeframes, and the significant causal relationship between economic growth and financial inclusion over the long term. However, in the short-run, the study found an insignificant causal relationship between economic growth and financial inclusion. The results of the Error Correction Term (ECT) coefficients were negative and statistically significant, implying dynamic stability among the variables. The policy implications of these findings are that in order to foster economic growth and development in SSA nations, financial inclusion must be accelerated and institutional quality must be improved.

Eyona njongo iphambili yolu phando kukuphonononga ubudlelwane phakathi komgagangatho wamaziko, ubandakanyo lwemali nokukhula koqoqosho kumazwe akhethiweyo aseAfrika akwiSub-Sahara ukusukela kumnyaka wama2004 ukuya kowama2020. Esona sizathu yayikukufumanisa ngophando olusekelwe kumava nendima edlalwa ngumgangatho weziko nobandakanyo lwemali ekuqhubeni ukukhula koqoqosho lwaseAfrika kwiSub-Sahara. Oku kwakubalulekile ngenxa yokungazinzi kwezinga lokukhula koqoqosho oluchaphazele amazwe eSSA nokuthintele ingingqi ukuba ibe kuphuhliso oluzinzileyo. Nangona kukho ubuninzi bezibonelelo ezibonakalayo, zabantu nendalo, ingingqi yaba nokukhula kwemirhumo eguquguqukayo phakathi kweepesenti ezine ukuya kwezintandathu ngonyaka kule minyaka ingamashumi amabini (20)) idlulileyo, eyenza ukuba ingaphuhli ngokwaneleyo. Ngokwamanani avela kwiBhanki yeHlabathi nakuMbutho woQoqoshao lwamaShishini noPhuhliso (OECD), ukukhula kweGDP kwiAfrika ekwiSub-Sahara, ethe yenyuka yaya kwiipesenti ezi6.37 ngo2002, yehla ngamandla nge1.24 yepesenti phambi kokuba ivuseleleke kancinci ngeepesenti ezi2.8 ngo2019 yaze kananjalo yawela kuhlumo olungaluhlanga. Uphando oludlulileyo luqwalasele kwizizathu zokukhula koqoqosho, ngogxininiso olungephi olunikwe umgangatho weziko nobandakanyo lwemali njengezizathu eziphambili, ezazinokucacisa ukukhula okudanisayo kweSud-Saharan Afrika. Iindlela zeGeneralised Method of Moments (GMM) nephaneli Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), kwanegqiza leNdlela YeZilungiso zeZiphene (Error Correction Models) (ECM), zasetyenziselwa ukuphicotha ubudlelwane obubalulekileyo, ukuhlanganiswa kwexesha elide nelifutshane nokuthungelana kwezizathu, ngokwahluka, phakathi komgangatho weziko, ubandakanyo lwemali nokukhula koqoqosho kumazwe eSSA enziwe isampuli. Sayila isalathiso somgangatho weziko nesemali sisebenzisa uHlalutyo lwaMalungu aPhambili (Principal Components Analysis) (PCA). Iziphumo zabonisa ukuba imiphumela edibeneyo yobandakanyo lwemali, umgangatho weziko, kwanezinga lokuhla kunyuka kwamandla email, urhwebo oluvulelekileyo, izinga lentswelangqesho, inkcitho yotyalomali, umgangatho wesakhono sokufunda nokubhala, nentlawulo yezixhobo zemvelo, ziya kuchaphazela ukukhula koqoqosho kwizizwe ezikhethiweyo zeSSA. Uphando lukwaqinisekise ukuba kwakukho umahluko omkhulu kwixabiso lomyinge wokukhula koqoqosho phakathi kwamaxesha kabhubhane iCOVID-19 kunye nengxubakaxaka yemali kwihlabathi ngokuthelekiswa namaxesha apho ezo ziphazamiso zibalulekileyo zazingenzeki. Iziphumo zenkqubo enamanqanaba amabini yohlalutyo iGMM zidandalazise ubudlelwane obubalulekileyo phakathi komgangatho weziko, ubandakanyo lwemali nolawulo lwezinto ezitshintshayo kunye nokukhula koqoqosho kumazwe akhethiweyo, nangona amandla obu budlelwane bumiselweyo (olulungileyo okanye olungalunganga) babuxhomekeke kakhulu kwindlela yophando eyasetyenziswayo ukulinganisela ukukhula koqoqosho. Iziphumo zovavanyo zokuhlanganiswa kwegqiza iARDL zabonisa ukuba ukukhula koqoqosho, ubandakanyo lwemali nomgangatho weziko zahambelana kakuhle ixesha elide kwizizwe zeSSA ezikhethiweyo. Iziphumo zeemvavanyo zonobangela wegqiza zabonakalisa izizathu zexesha elide ezimbolombini zezinto ezitshintshayo, nanjengoko kungqinwe bubudlelwane obubalulekileyo bukanobangela phakathi kokukhula koqoqosho nomgangatho weziko kuwo omabini amaxesha angoku nawexesha elizayo, kwanobudlelwane obubalulekileyo bonobangela phakathi kokukhula koqoqosho nobandakanyo lwemali kwixesha elide. Nangona kunjalo, ngexesha elifutshane, uphando lwafumanisa ubudlelwane obungenamsebenzi phakathi kokukhula koqoqosho nobandakanyo lwemali. Iziphumo zemiba ephindaphindayo ye-ETC zazingentle kwaye zibalulekile ngokweenkcukachamanani, zithetha uzinzo olunamandla phakathi kwezinto eziguquguqukayo. Imiphumela yomgaqonkqubo wezi ziphumo zezokuba ukuze kukhuthazwe ukukhula koqoqosho nophuhliso kwizizwe zeSSA, ubandakanyo lwemali kufuneka lunyusiwe nomgangatho weziko kufuneka uphuculwe.

Sepheo se seholo sa thuto ena e ne e le ho hlahloba kamano pakeng tsa boleng ba mekgatlo, kenyeletso ya ditjhelete, le kgolo ya moruo dinaheng tse kgethilweng tsa Sub-Saharan African (SSA) ho tloha 2004 ho ya 2020. Sepheo se ne se le ho theha ka matla karolo eo boleng ba mekgatlo le ho kenyeletswa ha ditjhelete ho e phethang ho tsamaisa kgolo ya moruo wa Sub-Saharan African.Sena se ne se hlokahala ka lebaka la ditekanyetso tse sa tsitsang tsa kgolo ya moruo tseo dinaha tsa SSA di bileng le tsona le tse thibetseng sebaka sena ho leba ntshetsopeleng ya moshwelella. Le hoja sebaka sena se e-na le matlotlo a mangata haholo a sebaka, a batho le a tlhaho, sekgahla sa kgolo se nnile sa theoha pakeng tsa diphesente tse nne ho ya ho tse tsheletseng selemo le selemo dilemong tse 20 tse fetileng, e leng se etsang hore se be le tshetsopele e tlase.Ho ya ka dipalo tse tswang Bankeng ya Lefatshe le Mokgatlo wa Tshebedisanommoho le Ntshetsopele ya Moruo (OECD), kgolo e kopaneng ya GDP ya Sub-Saharan Africa, e ileng ya fihla sehlohlolong sa diperesente tse 6.37 ka 2002, e theohetse ho diperesente tse 1.24 ka 2016 pele e thuseha hanyane ho fihla ho diperesente tse 2.28 ka selemo sa 2019 mme ya fokotseha ka 20.Diphuputso tse fetileng di tsepamisitse maikutlo ho disosa tsa moruo tsa kgolo, ha ho hatellwa ho fokolang ho lebisitswe ho boleng ba mekgatlo le ho kenyelletswa ha ditjhelete e le disosa tse haufi, tse ka hlalosang kgolo e fokolang ya Sub-Saharan Africa.Katamelo tsa The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) le panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), hammoho le panel Error Correction Models (ECM), di ile tsa sebediswa ho hlahloba dikamano tsa ketsahalo ya dintho, kopano ya nako e telele le e kgutswanyane le dikamano tsa sesosa, ka ho latellana, pakeng tsa boleng ba mekgatlo, ho kenyeletsa dinaha tsa moruo le sampole ya SA.Re thehile sesupo sa boleng ba setheo le sesupo sa kenyelletso ya ditjhelete re sebedisa Principal Components Analysis (PCA). Diphuputso di bontshitse hore diphello tse kopantsweng tsa ho kenyelletswa ha ditjhelete, boleng ba mekgatlo, hammoho le sekgahla sa theko ya ditjhelete, ho buleha ha kgwebo, sekgahla sa ho hloka mosebetsi, ditshenyehelo tsa ditjhelete, boemo ba ho bala le ho ngola, le kakaretso ya rente ya disebediswa tsa tlhaho, di ama kgolo ya moruo dinaheng tse kgethilweng tsa SSA. Thuto ena e boetse e netefaditse hore ho na le diphapang tse kgolo ho boleng ba kgolo ya moruo dipakeng tsa nako ya sewa sa COVID-19 le koduwa ya ditjhelete tsa lefatshe ho latela dinako tseo ditshitiso tse kgolo di sa kang tsa etsahala.Diphetho tsa tlhahlobo ya mehato e mmedi ya GMM e ile ya senola dikamano tse kgolo pakeng tsa boleng ba mekgatlo, kenyeletso ya ditjhelete, le mefutafuta ya taolo le kgolo ya moruo dinaheng tse kgethilweng, le hoja matla a kamano ena ya boikemisetso (e ntle kapa e mpe) e ne e itshetlehile haholo ka mokgwa o sebediswang ho lekanya kgolo ya moruo.Diphumano tsa tlhahlobo ya kgokahanyo ya phanele ya ARDL di bontshitse hore kgolo ya moruo, kenyelletso ya ditjhelete, le boleng ba mekgatlo di ne di amana hantle ka nako e telele ditjhabeng tse kgethilweng tsa SSA. Diphetho tsa diteko tsa lebaka la phanele di bontshitse lebaka la nako e telele la mabaka a mabedi a mefutafuta, jwalo ka ha ho pakwa ke dikamano tse kgolo dipakeng tsa kgolo ya moruo le boleng ba mekgatlo ka nako e kgutshwane le ya nako e telele, le kamano e kgolo ya sesosa pakeng tsa kgolo ya moruo le kenyeletso ya ditjhelete ka nako e telele. Leha ho le jwalo, ka nako e kgutswanyane, thuto e fumane kamano e sa reng letho ya sesosa pakeng tsa kgolo ya moruo le kenyeletso ya ditjhelete. Diphetho tsa dinomoro tse atiswang tsa Error Correction Term (ECT) di ne di le mpe ebile di se bohlokwa ho latela dipalopalo, di fana ka maikutlo a botsitso bo matla hara mefutafuta. Ditlamorao tsa leano la diphetho tsena ke hore molemong wa ho matlafatsa kgolo ya moruo le ntshetsopele ya dinaha tsa SSA, kenyelletso ya ditjhelete e tlameha ho potlakiswa le boleng ba mekgatlo bo tlameha ho ntlafatswa.