Alternative infrastructure funding models: a comparative study of Ghana and Nigeria

Abstract

This work examined the role of alternative funding models in addressing the substantial infrastructure shortfall in Ghana and Nigeria, specifically focusing on road development. The primary objective of the research was to assess how alternative models, such as public-private partnerships, crowdfunding, green finance, project finance, and asset securitisation, could address the infrastructure funding deficit in Ghana and Nigeria. Using 20-year secondary data from 2003 to 2023, the study employed multiple regression and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) econometric models to investigate the correlation between alternative funding models and key development indicators. This was augmented by Granger-causality analyses to assess the directional impact of critical infrastructure variables on GDP growth. Through a comparative analysis, the study further examined the factors that influenced the successful adoption of these models in each country. The key findings of this research indicate that, while traditional funding models remain essential, alternative models, particularly public-private partnerships and green finance, offer considerable potential for bridging the infrastructure funding deficit. Additionally, the research identified key drivers of infrastructure development, such as per capita income, employment rates, poverty reduction, and access to electricity, which emerged as significant predictors of infrastructure success in both countries. Thus, the study emphasises that the effective execution of these alternative models could foster sustained economic growth, social inclusiveness, and environmental resilience. The study proposes a decision-making framework to assist policymakers in the effective selection and execution of various funding models. This framework highlights the need to balance financial sustainability, social equality, and environmental responsibility, offering a strategic guide for Ghana and Nigeria to achieve their infrastructure objectives in line with global development frameworks. This study makes a substantial contribution to the field by integrating alternative funding models with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It offers a clear pathway for African countries to meet their infrastructure targets under the SDGs and AU Agenda 2063, while fostering long-term economic growth, social inclusion, and environmental stewardship.

Lolu cwaningo luhlose ukuhlola iqhaza elibanjwe yizindlela ezahlukahlukene zoxhasomali lokuxazulula ukwentuleka kwengqalasizinda eGhana naseNigeria, ikakhulu ekuphuculeni imigwaqo. Inhloso enkulu yocwaningo ukuhlola ukuthi izindlela ezahlukene, okubalwa kuzo izivumelwano zokusebenzisa kwezinhlaka zikahulumeni nezizimele (amaPPP), abezokuxhasa ngemali ngokuhlanganyela, ezezimali yokuvikelwa kwemvelo, ezezimali yemiklamo nokuvikeleka kwempahla yokusebenza, zingasiza kanjani ukunciphisa ukungalingani kwemali yokuxhasa izingqalasizinda eGhana naseNigeria. Lapha kusetshenziswe imininingo eyisibili yeminyaka engama-20 – kusukela ngonyaka wezi-2003 kuya kowezi-2023 – izindlela zokubala ukwehla kokuphindaphinda kanye nendlela ye-Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) ukuze kuhlolwe ubudlelwano phakathi kwezindlela ezahlukahlukene zoxhasomali nezinkomba ezisemqoka zendlela yokuthuthukisa. Lokhu kwenziwe ngohlelo lokuhlolwa kwesimo seGranger ukuze kuqinisekiswe umthelela oyinkombandlela phakathi kweminxa yengqalasizinda emqoka kanye nokukhula komnotho. Ngokokuqhathaniswa kocwaningo, lolu cwaningo luphinde lwahlaziya imithelela ethinta impumelelo ngokwamukelwa kwalezi zindlela ezweni ngalinye. Imiphumela ikhombisa ukuthi, nakuba zibalulekile izindlela zoxhaso ezijwayelekile, nalezi ezinye izindlela ezahlukahlukene, ikakhulu amaPPP nezezimali yokuvikelwa kwemvelo nazo zinamandla okuvala igebe elikhona ngokuntuleka kwezimali zokwakha ingqalasizinda. Ngaphezu kwalokho, iminxa emqoka ekuthuthukiseni ingqalasizinda, okubalwa kuyo imali yokuqalisa umsebenzi, izinga lomsebenzi, ukulwa nobubha nokufinyelela ekuhlomuleni ugesi, kuye kwahlonzwa njengezinye zezinkomba ezimqoka ekuzuzeni ingqalasizinda encono kulawa mazwe womabili. Lolu cwaningo luphinde luveze ukuthi ukusetshenziswa ngokufanele kwalezi zindlela ezahlukene zoxhasomali kungagcina kahle ukukhula komnotho, ukubandakanywa komphakathi kanye nozinzo kwezemvelo. Lolu cwaningo luphakamisa ukusebenza kohlaka lokuthathwa kwezinqumo ukuze kusizakale abasunguli bezinqubomgomo ekukhetheni nasekusebenziseni ngendlela efanele izindlela ezahlukene zoxhasomali. Lolu hlaka lugcizelela isidingo sokulingana kokusebenza kwemali, ukulingana komphakathi nokusebenza kwemvelo, futhi luhlinzeka ngomhlahlandlela wokusebenza eGhana naseNigeria ukuze kufezeke izinhloso zokusebenza kwengqalasizinda ngokuhambisana nezindlela zokusebenza ekuthuthukiseni umhlaba jikelele. Lolu cwaningo lufaka isandla kakhulu emkhakheni weZezimali Zentuthuko ngokuhlanganisa izindlela ezahlukahlukene zoxhasomali nezinhlelo zeMigomo Yokugcina Kahle Intuthuko (amaSDG). Luhlinzeka ngendlela ecacile ngokuthi amazwe ase-Afrika angazifeza kanjani izinhloso zawo zokuba nengqalasizinda ngokwamaSDG ne-AU Agenda 2063, aphinde akhuthaze ukukhula komnotho kwesikhathi eside, ukuhlanganyela komphakathi kanye nokuzibophezela kwezemvelo.

Thuto ena e hlahlobile karolo ya mekgwa e meng ya ditjhelete ya ho rarolla mabapi le kgaello ho mafaratlhatlha bakeng sa ditlhoko tsa baahi ho Ghana le Nigeria, mme tsepamiso maikutlo e le ho ntshetsopele ya mebila. Sepheo se ka sehloohong sa dipatlisiso e ne e le ho lekola hore metjha e meng, e jwalo ka balekani ba setjhaba–poraevete (PPPs), bongata ba ditjhelete, ditjhelete tse mabapi le diprojeke tseo tikoloho e unang molemo ho tsona, ditjhelete tsa projeke le polokeho ya thepa, di ka thusa jwang ho hlola dikgaello tsa ditjhelete tsa mafaratlhatlha ho Ghana le Nigeria. Ka tshebediso ya tlhahisoleseding ya bobedi ka ho pharalla ha lemo tse 20 – ho tloha ho 2003 ho ya ho 2023 –multiple regression and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) metjha ya dipalopalo e tla batlisisang kamano pakeng tsa metjha ya ditjhelete e meng le matshwao a bohlokwa a ntshetsopele. Sena se ile sa hodiswa ke diteko tsa Granger causality ho netefatsa ho ameha ho mahareng ha dintha tse ka fetohang tse bohlokwa tsa mafaratlhatlha le kgolo ya moruo. Ka tlhatlhobo e ka bapiswang, thuto e tswella ho hlahloba dintlha tse amang kamohelo ya metjha ena ho naha ka nngwe.Tse fumanweng tse bohlokwa di bontsha hore, ha metjha ya ditjhelete ya setso e dula e ntse e le ya bohlokwa, metjha e meng, haholoholo ditjhelete tsa PPPs le tse mabapi le ho una molemo ha tikoloho, di nehelana ka bokgoni bo nahanwang bo ka rarollang kapa bo ka kwalang dikgaello tsa ditjhelete tsa mafaratlhatlha. Ha ho tlatsetswa, dintho tse bohlokwa ho ntshetsopele ya mafaratlhatlha, jwalo ka lekeno la motho ka mong ho naha kapa lebatowa, dikgahla tsa mosebetsi, ho fokotseha ha bofuma le ho fihlella motlakase, di ile tsa fumanwa e le tsa bohlokwa ho katleho ya mafaratlhatlha ho dinaha ka bobedi. Thuto e hlakisa phethahatso e sebetsang hantle ya metjha ena e meng ya ditjhelete mme e ka kgothalletsa kgolo e tsitsitseng ya moruo, ho kenyelletswa ha setjhaba le mamello ya tikoloho. Thuto e hlahisa moralo wa ho nka qeto ho thusa baetsi ba maano ka ho kgetha ka tsela e sebetsang le ho tswedisa pele metjha e fapaneng ya ditjhelete. Moralo ona o hatella tlhokeho ya ho tsitsa ha ditjhelete, ho lekalekana ha setjhaba le maikarabelo a tikoloho, e nehelanang ka maano a tataiso bakeng sa Ghana le Nigeria ho fihlella dipheo tsa mafaratlhatlha ho ya ka meralo ya ntshetsopele ya lefatshe. Dipatlisiso tsena di etsa tlatsetso e tsitsitseng ho lekala la Ntshetsopele ya Ditjhelete ka ho kopanya metjha ya ditjhelete e meng le Dipheo tsa Ntshetsopele e Titsitseng (SDGs). E nehelana ka tsela e hlakileng bakeng sa dinaha tsa Afrika ho fihlella dipheo tsa mafaratlhatlha tlasa Lenane-tsamaiso la SDGs le AU 2063, ha e ntse e phahamisa kgolo ya nako e telele ya moruo, kenyeletso ya setjhaba le tsamaiso ya tikoloho.