Ecological applications using a novel expert system shell

Abstract

Much of the information used by ecologists in modeling and decision making is imprecise. The imprecision arises both from data which is inexact or incom­plete and from the use of ecological principles which are sometimes less than fully reliable and which may be conflicting. Nevertheless expert ecologists are able to construct usable models and make decisions which are used to manage and control ecological resources. This paper describes a unique expert system shell, developed in conjunction with user ecologists, which incorporates features enabling ecologists to represent knowledge and uncertainty in their expert systems in a way which is natural and appropriate. The reasoning mechanism was similarly developed in conjunction with user ecologists. It produces solutions to a class of expert level problems along with explanatory mechanisms and an appropriate analysis of the reasoning process. Three expert systems have been constructed by ecologists using this expert system shell. This enabled the shell designers to evaluate features for inclusion in the shell. The successful use of the shell by the ecologists has shown that significant economies arise when expert system shell design is tailored to use by a specific class of experts, in this case, ecologists.