Determinants of commercial real estate performance : the case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Abstract

Ethiopia is one of the world's fastest urbanising countries, with cities such as Addis Ababa constantly expanding. While urbanisation causes a variety of social and economic issues, housing shortages in developing countries are worse than ever, and the number of slum dwellers living illegally in areas with no licenses or property rights is growing. Ethiopia is no exception in this regard. The main objective of the study was to investigate the variables that affect Addis Ababa‘s commercial real estate market performance. The study employed a mixed research approach with an explanatory sequential mixed method design. The study sample for the quantitative phase consisted of senior specialists, top business leaders and other professionals from 35 commercial real estate developers operating in Addis Ababa. A total of 231 structured and self-administered sets of questionnaires were distributed, with 163 ultimately being used in the analysis. This yielded a real response rate of 71%, which was considered both necessary and adequate for running the requisite statistical tests. For the qualitative phase of the study, 15 key informants from relevant government ministries or agencies and relevant industry sectors were chosen to participate in in-depth interviews. However, only 10 key informants volunteered to be interviewed. The quantitative study's results showed that every factor—firm efficiency, supplier dependability and customer purchase intentions, as well as credit availability, marketing strategy, legal considerations, land availability, infrastructure development, technological adoption and leadership quality—had a significant and positive impact on the performance of Addis Ababa‘s commercial real estate market. The qualitative study revealed that the additional variables of political and economic instability, the level of coordination and stakeholder participation, political intervention and home buyers' purchasing power affected the performance of commercial real estate. The researcher recommends that, to perform better, real estate firms develop an effective strategy that focuses on performance-improving variables and work closely with the government and other stakeholders. Finally, commercial real estate developers should be guided by the suggested framework for measuring performance in the commercial real estate industry.

Ethiopia ke e nngwe ya dinaha tse potlakileng ka ho fetisisa lefatsheng tse ahang ditoropo, ditoropo tse jwalo ka Addis Ababa e ntseng e hola. Le hoja ho ata ha ditoropo ho baka mathata a sa tshwaneng a setjhaba le a moruo, kgaello ya matlo dinaheng tse ntseng di tswela pele e mpe ho feta pele, mme palo ya baahi ba mekhukhu ba phelang moo ka ntle ho molao dibakeng tse se nang mangolo a tumello kapa ditokelo tsa boahi e ntse e eketseha. Ethiopia ha se mokgelo tabeng ena. Sepheo se seholo sa phuputso ena ke ho batlisisa mefuta e fapaneng e amang tshebetso ya mmaraka wa thekiso ya matlo le meaho Addis Ababa. Phuputso e sebedisitse mokgwa o kopaneng wa ho etsa patlisiso o nang le moralo o hlalosang wa mokgwa o kopaneng wa tatellano. Sampole ya phuputso bakeng sa mokgahlelo wa dipalo e ne e na le ditsebi tsa maemo a phahameng, baetapele ba ka sehloohong ba dikgwebo le ditsebi tse ding tsa kaho tse 35 tsa thekiso ya matlo le meaho tse sebetsang Addis Ababa. Kakaretso ya disete tsa dipotso tse 231 tse hlophisitsweng le tse sa hlophiswang di abilwe, mme qetellong ho sebedisitswe tse 163 bakeng sa manollo. Sena se fane ka sekgahla sa karabelo sa nnete sa 71%, se neng se nkuwa se hlokahala ebile se lekane bakeng sa ho etsa diteko tsa dipalo-palo tse hlokahalang. Bakeng sa mokgahlelo wa boleng ba phuputso, ho kgethilwe ditsebi tse 15 tsa bohlokwa ho tswa makaleng a amehang a mmuso le mafapha a amehang a indasteri ho nka karolo dipuisanong tse tebileng. Leha ho le jwalo, ke ditsebi tse 10 feela tsa bohlokwa tse ileng tsa ithaopela ho botswa dipotso. Diphetho tsa phuputso ya dipalo di bontshitse hore ntho e nngwe le e nngwe – katleho ya feme, ho itshetleha ho bafani le merero ya ho reka ya bareki, hammoho le ho fumaneha ha mekoloto, leano la ho bapatsa, menahano ya molao, ho ba teng ha mobu, ntlafatso ya meaho, ho amohelwa ha thekenoloji le boleng ba boetapele – ho bile le phello e kgolo le e ntle tshebetsong ya mmaraka wa thekiso ya matlo le meaho wa Addis Ababa. Phuputso ya boleng e senotse hore dintho tse ding tse fapaneng tsa ho se tsitse ha dipolotiki le moruo, boemo ba kgokahanyo le ho nka karolo ha baamehi, boitshunyako ba dipolotiki le matla a ho reka a bareki ba matlo di amme tshebetso ya kgwebo ya thekiso ya matlo le meaho. Mofuputsi o kgothalletsa hore, e le ho sebetsa hantle, difeme tsa thekiso ya matlo le meaho di lokela ho theha leano le sebetsang hantle le tsepameng ho mefuta e ntlafatsang ya tshebetso le ho sebetsa haufi-ufi le mmuso le ba bang ba amehang. Qetellong, ditsebi tsa kaho tsa thekiso ya matlo le meaho di lokela ho tataiswa ke moralo o kgothaletswang wa ho lekanya tshebetso indastering ya thekiso ya matlo le meaho.

I-Ethiopia ingelinye lamazwe emadolobheni ashesha kakhulu emhlabeni, njengoba amadolobha afana ne-Addis Ababa akhula njalo. Nakuba ukufudukela emadolobheni kubangela izinkinga ezihlukahlukene zezenhlalo nezomnotho, ukuntuleka kwezindlu emazweni asathuthuka kubi kakhulu kunaphambilini, futhi inani labantu abahlala emijondolo abahlala ngokungemthetho ezindaweni ezingenawo amalayisensi noma amalungelo endawo liyakhula. I-Ethiopia nayo ayihlukile kulokhu. Inhloso eyinhloko yocwaningo kwakuwukuphenya okuguquguqukayo okuthinta ukusebenza kwemakethe yezindlu zentengiso yase-Addis Ababa. Ucwaningo lusebenzise indlela yocwaningo exubile lapho ithola imininingwane ngokuchaza bese ilinganisa okutholiwe. Isampula yocwaningo yesigaba sokuchaza yayihlanganisa ochwepheshe abaphezulu, abaholi bamabhizinisi abaphezulu kanye nabanye ochwepheshe abavela kubathuthukisi bezindlu ezithengiswayo abangama-35 abasebenza e-Addis Ababa. Isamba semibuzo engama-231 ehleliwe futhi ezilawula ngokwazo yasatshalaliswa, kwathi eyi-163 yagcina isetshenziswa ekuhlaziyeni. Lokhu kuveze izinga lokuphendula langempela elingu-71%, elathathwa njengelibalulekile nelifanele ukuqhuba ukuhlolwa kwezibalo okudingekayo. Esigabeni sokuchaza salolu cwaningo, kwakhethwa ongoti abayi-15 ababalulekile abavela ezindlini zongqongqoshe ezifanelekile noma amanxusa kanye nemikhakha yemboni efanele ukuze babambe iqhaza ezingxoxweni ezijulile. Kodwa-ke, bayi-10 kuphela ongoti abavolontiya ukuthi kuxoxwe nabo. Imiphumela yocwaningo lokulinganisa ibonise ukuthi zonke izici—ukusebenza kahle okuqinile, ukwethembeka kwabahlinzeki kanye nezinhloso zokuthenga kwamakhasimende, kanye nokutholakala kwesikweletu, isu lokumaketha, ukucatshangelwa komthetho, ukutholakala komhlaba, ukuthuthukiswa kwengqalasizinda, ukutholwa kobuchwepheshe kanye nekhwalithi yobuholi—kube nomthelela omkhulu futhi omuhle ekusebenzeni kwemakethe yezindlu zentengiso yase-Addis Ababa. Ucwaningo ngokuchaza luveze ukuthi ukuguquguquka okwengeziwe kokuntengantenga kwezombusazwe nezomnotho, izinga lokudidiyela nokubamba iqhaza kwababambiqhaza, ukungenelela kwezombusazwe kanye namandla okuthenga kwabathengi bezindlu kuthinte ukusebenza kwezindawo ezithengiswayo. Umcwaningi uphakamise ukuthi, ukuze zisebenze kangcono, amafemu ezindlu ezithengiswayo asungule isu elisebenzayo eligxile ekuguquguqukeni okuthuthukisa ukusebenza kanye nokusebenzisana nohulumeni nabanye ababambiqhaza. Okokugcina, abathuthukisi bezindlu ezithengiswayo bafanele baqondiswe nguhlaka oluphakanyisiwe lokulinganisa ukusebenza embonini yezindlu ezithengiswayo