https://ir.unisa.ac.za/handle/10500/26 2026-09-20T11:36:46Z https://ir.unisa.ac.za/handle/10500/33009 Foreign capital on suitable development: the moderating influence of institutional quality Sogah, Enerst Over the past decades, the continent of Africa has significantly depended on foreign capital flows to propel growth; however, concerns remain about their environmental and food security consequences in vulnerable contexts. Although foreign capital can either worsen environmental degradation or enhance ecological transition, empirical evidence remains limited, especially in Africa. Again, few studies have examined how institutional structures and partnerships condition these relationships. This creates a theoretical and empirical gap regarding the moderating role of institutional quality and partnerships in shaping the environmental and food security outcomes of foreign capital in Africa. Hence, this thesis examines the effect of foreign capital on ecosystem conditions and the moderating role of institutional quality in Africa, while also exploring how foreign capital influences food security when conditioned on Partnerships for the Goals. Covering the period from 2000 to 2022, the study is structured around three main objectives. The study employed a two-step system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) for the econometric estimation and complements it with dynamic panel threshold techniques to capture nonlinearities. The first objective assesses the effect of foreign capital on ecosystems; again, the study investigates the moderating role of institutional quality in foreign capital-ecosystem contagion. Building on this, the second objective investigates the moderating role of political institutions in the relationship between economic institutions and ecosystem contagion. The third objective shifts focus to food security, examining how the impact of foreign capital on food security changes when conditioned on partnership for the goals. The results provide several important insights. First, the findings indicate that the impact of foreign capital indicators, including external debt, remittances, FDI, and portfolio investment, on ecosystems is more pronounced above the threshold. These thresholds suggest that beyond certain levels, foreign capital inflows contribute meaningfully to ecosystem improvement. Second, the analysis shows that stronger political and economic institutions significantly enhance ecosystem transitions, highlighting the importance of governance quality. Third, the study reveals that the conditional effect of foreign capital on food security becomes positive when moderated by partnership for the goals. This implies that while the unconditional effect of foreign capital on food security is negative, effective partnerships can reverse this outcome and strengthen food security. The study extends the ecological modernization theory by revealing how international capital supports ecosystem and food security sustainability in Africa. The study recommend that foreign capital reforms should be done in a manner to enhance ecosystem and food security financing in Africa. The study made the first attempt to link foreign capital to ecosystem and food security in Africa.; Emashumini eminyaka edlule, izwekazi lase Afrika lithembele kakhulu ekungeneni kwezimali zakwamanye amazwe ukuze liqhubekele phambili ekukhuleni komnotho; nokho, ukukhathazeka kusaqhubeka mayelana nendawo yazo ezungezile kanye nemiphumela yokuphepha kokudla ezimweni ezingozini. Nakuba izimali zakwamanye amazwe zingalimaza kakhulu ukucekelwa phansi kwemvelo noma isekela uguquko lwezemvelo, ubufakazi obunamandla buhlala bunomkhawulo, ikakhulukazi e-Afrika. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ucwaningo olumbalwa luye lwaphenya ukuthi izinhlaka zezikhungo kanye nokusebenzisana kubeka lobubudlelwano ukuthi bube Nezinjongo Zokuthuthukiswa Okusimeme. Ngenxa yalokho, kunegebe le-theory kanye nokusebenza mayelana nezindima zokulinganisa zekhwalithi yesikhungo kanye nobudlelwano ekubumbeni imiphumela yezemvelo kanye nokuvikeleka kokudla kwezimali zakwamanye amazwe e-Afrika. Le-thesis ihlola umthelela wemali yangaphandle ezimeni ze-ecosystem, ngokubheka ikakhulukazi indima yokulinganisa izinga lesikhungo e-Afrika. Iphinde ihlole ukuthi izimali zakwamanye amazwe zikuthinta kanjani ukuvikeleka kokudla uma kuncike ebudlelwaneni bezinjongo. Ihlanganisa isikhathi kusuka ku- 2000 kuya ku-2022, ukuhlaziya kuhlelwe ngokwezinjongo ezintathu ezibalulekile. Ukulinganiswa kwe-Econometric kwenziwa kusetshenziswa indlela yezikhathi yezinyathelo ezimbili ezijwayelekile (SGMM), kuhambisana namasu e-panel e-dynamic threshold ukuze ithwebule okungeyona imigqa. Ihloso yokuqala yokwenza uhlolo, imiphumela yemali yangaphandle ezimweni ze-ecosystem, kanye nendima yokulinganisa ikhwalithi yesikhungo ebudlelwaneni be-capital-ecosystem yangaphandle. Ukwakhela phezu kwalokhu, inhloso yesibili ukuhlola indima yokulinganisa izikhungo zezombusazwe ebudlelwaneni phakathi kwesikhungo nezombusazwe ebudlelwaneni kwesikhungo sezomnotho nezimo ze-ecosystem. Inhloso yesithathu ukuhlola umthelela wezimali zakwamanye amazwe ushitsha kanjani ekuvikeleleni ukudla. Okutholakele kunikeza iminingwane eminingana ebalulekile. Okokuqala, okutholakele kubonisa ukuthi umthelela wezinkomba zemali yangaphandle, njengesikweletu sagaphandle, izimali ezamukelwayo, utshalomali oluqondile lwangaphandle kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kwe-portfolio, ezimweni ze-ecosystem zigqama kakhulu ngaphezu kwemikhawulo ekhonjiwe. Lemikhawulo ikhombisa ukuthi, ngale kwamazinga athile, imali engenayo yamazwe angaphandle inegalelo elibonakalayo ekuthuthukisweni kweecostsyem. Okwesibili, ukuhlaziya kukhombisa ukuthi izikhungo eziqinile zezepolitiki nezomnotho zithuthukisa kakhulu uguquko lwe-ecosystem, egqamisa ukubaluleka kwekhalithi yokubusa. Okwesithathu, okutholakele kukhombisa okuthalakele kukhombisa ukuthi umthelela onemibandlela wemali yangaphandle ekuvikelekeni kokudla kuba kuhle uma wengamela ubudlelwane nezinjongo. Loku kuphakamisa ukuthi, nakuba umthelela ongenamibandela wemali yakwamanye amazwe ekuvikelekeni kokudla mubi, ubudlelwano obusebenzayo bungawuhlehlisa lomphumela futhi uqinise ukuvikeleka kokudla. Ucwaningo lunweba I-theory yesimanje yezemvelo ngokukhombisa ukuthi imali yamanye amazwe ingasekela kanjani ekusimameni kwe-ecosystem kanye nokuvikeleka kokudla e-Afrika. Ngokusekela okutholakele, Kunconywa ukuthi kwenziwe uguquko lwezimali zakwamanye amazwe ngendlela ezothuthukisa ukusimama kwe-ecosystem kanye nokuxhaswa ngezimali kokutholakala kokudla e-Afrika. Lolucwaningo lunegalelo langempela ngokuxhumanisa imali yakwamanye amazwe nezimo ze-ecosystem kanye nokuvikeleka kokudla e-Afrika.; Esikhathini esingangetjhumi leminyaka edlulileko, ikhontinenti ye-Afrika bekade ithembele khulu ekungeneni kwemali yangaphandle ukuthuthukisa umnotho; nofana kunjalo, ukutshwenyeka kuragela phambili mayelana nemiphumela yokuvikeleka kwebhoduluko nokudla ebujameni ebusengozini. Nalokha imali yangaphandle ingaragisela phambili ukuwohloka kwebhoduluko nofana isekele ukutjhuguluka kwemvelo, ubufakazi obubonakalakho busese buncani, khulukhulu e-Afrika. Ngaphezulu kwalokho, ziimbalwa iimfundo ezenze irhubhululo lokobana amaziko nokubambisana okunqophene nemiNqopho yokuThuthuka okuNzinzileko kunamuphi umthelela ebudlelwaneni lobu. Ngalokho-ke, kunesikhala sethiyori nobufakazi mayelana neendima zokulinganisa ikhwalithi yamaziko nokubambisana ekubumbeni imiphumela yokuvikeleka kwebhoduluko nokudla okulethwa yimali yangaphandle e-Afrika. Ithisisi le ihlolisisa umthelela wemali yangaphandle ebujameni behlelo lemvelo, ngokutjhejisisa indima yokulinganisa ikhwalithi yamaziko e-Afrika. Ihlolisisa nokobana imali yangaphandle inamuphi umthelela ekuvikelekeni kokudla lokha nayilawulwa budlelwana bemiNqopho le. Ukuhlaziya kwakhiwe ngokuqala iminqopho emithathu, kufakwa isikhathi ukusukela ngomnyaka we-2000 ukuya kowe-2022. Ukulinganiswa komnotho kwenziwe ngokusebenzisa ihlelo elinamagadango amabili le-SGMM, ngokurhelejwa mathekhniki wephaneli yomkhawulo enamandla ukubona ukungalingani. Umnqopho wokuthoma bekukuhlola umthelela wemali yangaphandle ebujameni behlelo lemvelo, kunye nendima yekhwalithi yamaziko yokulawula ubudlelwana bemali yangaphandle nehlelo lemvelo. Ngokwakhela phezulu kwalokhu, umnqopho wesibili bekukuhlahluba indima yamaziko wezepolitiki ekulawuleni ubudlelwana phakathi kwamaziko wezomnotho nobujamo behlelo lemvelo. Umnqopho wesithathu bekukuhlahluba umthelela wemali yangaphandle ekutjhugulukeni kweviveleko lokudla lokha nalisame ebudlelwaneni bemiNqopho ehlosiweko. Imiphumela inikela ngelwazi eliqakathekileko elinengana. Kokuthoma, imiphumela itjengisa bonyana iinkomba zomthelela wemali yangaphandle, njengeenkolodo zangaphandle, ukuthunyelwa kwemali, isisomali yangaphandle ebunqopha nesisomali yephothofoliyo, ebujameni behlelo lemvelo ubonakala khulu ukudlula imikhawulo ebekiweko. Imikhawulo le itjengisa bonyana, ngale kwamazinga athileko, ukungena kwemali yangaphandle kuyasiza ekuthuthukiseni ihlelo lemvelo. Kwesibili, imiphumela le itjengisa bonyana amaziko wezepolitiki newezomnotho aqinileko athuthukisa ukutjhuguluka kwehlelo lemvelo, kuveze ukuqakatheka kwekhwalithi yokubusa. Kwesithathu, imiphumela le itjengisa bonyana umthelela onemibandela wemali yangaphandle ekuvikelekeni kokudla uba ngomuhle lokha nawulawulwa budlelwana bemiNqopho ehlosiweko. Lokhu kuveza bonyana, nanyana umthelela onganamibandela wemali yangaphandle ekuvikelekeni kokudla ungaba ngomumbi, ukubambisana kungawubuyisela emuva umphumela lo begodu kuqinise nevikeleko lokudla. Irhubhululo leli linabisa ithiyori ye-mordenisation yehlelo lemvelo ngokutjengisa bonyana imali yamazwe wangaphandle ingakusekela njani ukunzinza kwehlelo lemvelo nevikeleko lokudla e- Afrika. Ngokusekelwa miphumela yerhubhululo leli, kuphakanyiswa bonyana amatjhuguluko wezangaphandle enziwe ngendlela ezakuthuthukisa ukunzinza kwehlelo lemvelo nesekelomali levikeleko lokudla e-Afrika. Irhubhululo leli lenza umnikelo wokuthoma ngokuhlanganisa imali yangaphandle nobujamo behlelo lemvele kunye nevikeleko lokudla e-Afrika. Includes abstract in isiZulu and isiNdebele 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://ir.unisa.ac.za/handle/10500/32704 The impact of Fintech on employment and labour productivity in the South African banking sector Soyizwapi, Mbulelo M. This study examines the influence of financial technology (Fintech) on labour productivity and employment in South Africa’s banking industry from 2010 Q1 to 2022 Q4, a period characterised by significant digital transformation accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling framework, the analysis estimates both short-term and long-term relationships between fintech adoption and two key economic variables: employment and labour productivity. The empirical results indicate that fintech adoption initially reduces employment levels due to automation and digital substitution; however, it positively affects employment in the long term through the creation of new roles and the expansion of service offerings. Labour productivity consistently benefits from fintech diffusion, although incremental improvements tend to decrease over time. By focusing on an emerging economy such as South Africa, this research fills a notable gap in existing literature, which has predominantly concentrated on developed countries. The findings highlight the dual role of fintech as a catalyst for efficiency and a disruptor of traditional employment frameworks. Additionally, the study advocates for balanced policy approaches that leverage the productivity gains associated with fintech while addressing its potential short-term impact on labour displacement. These conclusions offer valuable guidance to policymakers, financial institutions, and technology developers as they navigate the dynamic digital financial ecosystem in South Africa and comparable markets. 2025-12-12T00:00:00Z https://ir.unisa.ac.za/handle/10500/32643 Bridging the divide : the impact of financial inclusion on income inequality in Africa Mdingi, Kholeka The study empirically investigates the impact of financial inclusion on income inequality across 25 African countries from 2006 to 2022. Promoting financial inclusion has become a core strategy for economic development in emerging economies, focusing on advancing access for low-income households and small businesses. The existing literature suggests that such efforts yield various benefits for economic and financial development, which, in turn, may reduce income inequality. This potential link raises an important question: Does the movement toward greater financial inclusion effectively reduce income inequality? Empirical research examining the link between financial inclusion and income inequality is important, particularly in Africa, a developing region with high income inequality. Therefore, this study investigates the effect of financial inclusion – measured by access, penetration and usage dimensions and an overall index – on income inequality using the two-step system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM), and the Quantile Regression testing techniques. The findings indicate that access to financial services and products, their penetration, and the financial inclusion index reduce income inequality, particularly in countries at medium to high quantiles of the income inequality distribution, while it increases it at lower quantiles. Policy makers should implement policies that expand access to and penetration of formal financial services and products, and complement financial inclusion efforts with measures to reduce wealth gaps. In contrast, the findings show that the use of financial services and products increases income inequality, particularly in countries at medium to high quantiles of the income inequality distribution, while reducing it at lower quantiles. This suggests that financial use, in terms of credit and savings, tends to widen rather than reduce income inequality, benefitting those already financially included, while disadvantaged groups remain excluded. Policymakers should implement policies that promote income-generating activities and improve the earning capacity of disadvantaged populations before promoting this form of financial use. They should also promote more accessible alternative forms of financial use, such as digital payment systems and internet banking, to reduce barriers for small businesses and low-income groups. Furthermore, policymakers should pursue financial education initiatives to enable poor people to use these digital financial services and products effectively.; Kwenziwe uphando ngokwamava xa kuphandwa impembelelo yokufikelela okuqukayo emalini kumba wokungalingani kwemivuzo kumazwe angama-25 elizwekazi iAfrika ukususela kunyaka wama-2006 ukuya kuthi ga kowama-2022. Ukuqhubela phambili ukufikelela okuqukayo emalini sisicwangciso esingundoqo sophuhliso loqoqosho lwamazwe anoqoqosho olusakhasayo kwaye sijolise ekubeni siphucule ukufikelela kwamakhaya anemivuzo emincinane kunye namashishini amancinane. Uncwadi olukhoyo lubalula ukuba iinzame ezilolu hlobo zinceda ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo kuphuhliso loqoqosho nolwemali, kwaye oku kunokuwucutha umsantsa wokungalingani kwemivuzo. Olu nxulumano olunokwenzeka luvusa umbuzo obalulekileyo: Ingaba ukufikelela okuqukayo emalini kuyawucutha ngokwenene na umsantsa wokungalingani kwemivuzo? Lubalulekile uphando ngokwamava oluhlola unxulumano phakathi kokufikelela okuqukayo emalini kunye nomsantsa wokungalingani kwemivuzo, ingakumbi kwilizwekazi iAfrika eliyingingqi esakhasayo enowona msantsa mkhulu wokungalingani kwemivuzo. Olu phando luphengulula isiphumo sokufikelela okuqukayo emalini – silinganiswa ngemilinganiselo yokufikeleleka, eyokungena neyokusetyenziswa nangesalathisi ngokubanzi – kumsantsa wokungalingani kwemivuzo lusebenzisa inkqubo emanyathelo amabini iGeneralised Method of Moments (GMM), kunye neendlela zokuhlola iQuantile Regression. Iziphumo zobonise ukuba ukufikelela kwiinkonzo nakwiimveliso zemali, ukungena kuzo kunye nesalathisi sokufikelela okuqukayo emalini ngokubanzi kuyawucutha umsantsa wokungalingani kwemivuzo, ingakumbi kumazwe akumanqanaba aphakathi ukusa kwaphezulu okungalingani kwemivuzo, ukanti kuyawunyusa kumazwe akumanqanaba asezantsi. Kufuneka abaqulunqi bemigaqo-nkqubo bamilisele imigaqo-nkqubo eyandisa ukufikeleleka nokungena kwiinkonzo neemveliso zemali ezisesikweni kwaye bawunciphise umsantsa wobutyebi besebenzisa ukufikelela okuqukayo emalini. Iziphumo zichasene noku kuba zona zibonisa ukuba ukusebenzisa iinkonzo neemveliso zemali kuyakwandisa ukungalingani kwemivuzo, ingakumbi kumazwe akumanqanaba aphakathi naphezulu ngokwemivuzo engalinganiyo, ukanti kumazwe akumanqanaba asezantsi okungalingani kwemivuzo oku kuyakunciphisa ukungalingani kwemivuzo. Oku kuxela ukuba ukusebenzisa imali ngamatyala nangokulondoloza imali kuyakwandisa ukungalingani kwemivuzo endaweni yokokuba kukunciphise kwaye kunceda abo asele bequkiwe emalini lo gama beqhubeka nokusala ngaphandle abo bangathathi ntweni. Phambi kokuba abaqulunqi bemigaqo-nkqubo baqhubele phambili olu hlobo lokusetyenziswa kwemali kufuneka bamilisele imigaqo-nkqubo ekhuthaza ukwenziwa kwezinto ezingenisa umvuzo neziphucula ubuchule bokungenisa imali ebantwini abahlelelekileyo. Kufuneka baqhubele phambili iindlela ezizezinye ezifikelelekayo zokusebenzisa imali ezifana neenkqubo zokuhlawula ngedijithali nokubhanka ngeintanethi ukuze kuguzulwe imiqobo ethintela amashishini amancinane kunye nabantu abamkela imivuzo emincinane. Ngaphaya koko, kufuneka abaqulunqi bemigaqo-nkqubo benze amaphulo okufundisa ngemali ngelincedisa abantu abahlelelekileyo ukuze bakwazi ukusebenzisa ezi nkonzo neemveliso zemali zedijithali ngokukuko.; Die studie ondersoek empiries die impak van finansiële insluiting op inkomste-ongelykheid in 25 Afrikalande van 2006 tot 2022. Die bevordering van finansiële insluiting het ʼn kernstrategie vir ekonomiese ontwikkeling in ontluikende ekonomieë geword, met die fokus op die bevordering van toegang vir lae-inkomste huishoudings en klein besighede. Die bestaande literatuur dui daarop dat sulke pogings verskeie voordele vir ekonomiese en finansiële ontwikkeling inhou, wat weer inkomste-ongelykheid kan verminder. Hierdie potensiële skakel laat ʼn belangrike vraag ontstaan: Verminder die beweging na groter finansiële insluiting inkomste-ongelykheid effektief? Empiriese navorsing wat die verband tussen finansiële insluiting en inkomste-ongelykheid ondersoek, is belangrik, veral in Afrika, ʼn ontwikkelende streek met hoë inkomste-ongelykheid. Hierdie studie ondersoek dus die uitwerking van finansiële insluiting – gemeet aan toegang-, penetrasie- en gebruiksdimensies en ʼn algehele indeks – op inkomste-ongelykheid met behulp van die tweestap-stelsel algemene metode van momente (AMM) en die kwantielregressie-toetstegnieke. Die bevindinge dui daarop dat toegang tot finansiële dienste en produkte, die penetrasie en die algehele finansiële insluitingsindeks inkomste-ongelykheid verminder, veral in lande met medium tot hoë kwantiele van die inkomste-ongelykheidsverspreiding, terwyl dit met laer kwantiele verhoog. Beleidsmakers behoort beleid te implementeer wat toegang tot en penetrasie van formele finansiële dienste en produkte uitbrei en finansiële insluitingspogings met maatreëls aanvul om welvaartgapings te verminder. In teenstelling hiermee toon die bevindinge dat die gebruik van finansiële dienste en produkte inkomste-ongelykheid verhoog, veral in lande met medium tot hoë kwantiele van die inkomste-ongelykheidsverspreiding, terwyl dit by laer kwantiele verminder. Dit dui daarop dat finansiële gebruik, in terme van krediet en spaargeld, geneig is om inkomste-ongelykheid te verbreed eerder as te verminder, wat diegene wat reeds finansieel ingesluit is, bevoordeel, terwyl benadeelde groepe uitgesluit bly. Beleidsmakers behoort beleid te implementeer wat inkomste-genererende aktiwiteite bevorder en die verdienvermoë van benadeelde bevolkings verbeter voordat hulle hierdie vorm van finansiële gebruik bevorder. Hulle behoort ook meer toeganklike alternatiewe vorme van finansiële gebruik, soos digitale betaalstelsels en internetbankdienste, te bevorder om versperrings vir klein besighede en lae-inkomstegroepe te verminder. Verder behoort beleidsmakers finansiële opvoedingsinisiatiewe na te streef om arm mense in staat te stel om hierdie digitale finansiële dienste en produkte effektief te gebruik Abstracts in English, Xhosa and Afrikaans 2025-10-01T00:00:00Z https://ir.unisa.ac.za/handle/10500/32640 Institutional quality, financial inclusion and economic growth : evidence from selected Sub-Saharan African countries Golpet, Morgak Kassem This study's main goal was to examine the relationship between institutional quality, financial inclusion, and economic growth in selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 2004 to 2020. The rationale was to empirically establish the role that institutional quality and financial inclusion play in driving Sub-Saharan African economic growth. This was necessary due to the unstable economic growth rates that the SSA countries have experienced and which have prevented the region from moving toward sustainable development. Despite having enormous amounts of physical, human, and natural resources, the region has had growth rates that have fluctuated between 4 and 6 percent annually for the past 20 years, making it less developed. According to figures from the World Bank and the OECD, Sub-Saharan Africa's combined GDP growth, which peaked at 6.37 percent in 2002, plunged to 1.24 percent in 2016 before making a little recovery to 2.28 percent in 2019 and then slipping into negative growth in 2020. Previous research has focused on the economic causes of growth, with little emphasis paid to institutional quality and financial inclusion as proximate causes, which could explain Sub-Saharan Africa's underwhelming growth. The Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) and panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approaches, as well as panel Error Correction Models (ECM), were utilised to examine the deterministic relationships, long-run and short-run cointegration and causality linkages, respectively, between institutional quality, financial inclusion and economic growth in the sampled SSA countries. We constructed an institutional quality index and a financial inclusion index using Principal Components Analysis (PCA). The findings showed that the combined effects of financial inclusion, institutional quality, as well as the inflation rate, trade openness, unemployment rate, investment expenditure, literacy level, and total natural resource rent, affect economic growth in the selected SSA nations. The study also confirmed that there were great differences in the mean value of economic growth between the times of the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis relative to times when those significant disruptions had not occurred. The results of the two-step system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) analysis revealed significant relationship between institutional quality, financial inclusion, and the control variables and economic growth in the selected countries, though the strength of this deterministic relationship (positive or negative) was largely dependent on the method used to measure economic growth. The findings of the panel ARDL cointegration test indicated that economic growth, financial inclusion, and institutional quality were positively correlated over the long term in the selected SSA nations. The outcomes of the panel causality tests demonstrated long-run bi-directional causality of the variables, as evidenced by the substantial causative relationship between economic growth and institutional quality in both the short-run and long-run timeframes, and the significant causal relationship between economic growth and financial inclusion over the long term. However, in the short-run, the study found an insignificant causal relationship between economic growth and financial inclusion. The results of the Error Correction Term (ECT) coefficients were negative and statistically significant, implying dynamic stability among the variables. The policy implications of these findings are that in order to foster economic growth and development in SSA nations, financial inclusion must be accelerated and institutional quality must be improved.; Eyona njongo iphambili yolu phando kukuphonononga ubudlelwane phakathi komgagangatho wamaziko, ubandakanyo lwemali nokukhula koqoqosho kumazwe akhethiweyo aseAfrika akwiSub-Sahara ukusukela kumnyaka wama2004 ukuya kowama2020. Esona sizathu yayikukufumanisa ngophando olusekelwe kumava nendima edlalwa ngumgangatho weziko nobandakanyo lwemali ekuqhubeni ukukhula koqoqosho lwaseAfrika kwiSub-Sahara. Oku kwakubalulekile ngenxa yokungazinzi kwezinga lokukhula koqoqosho oluchaphazele amazwe eSSA nokuthintele ingingqi ukuba ibe kuphuhliso oluzinzileyo. Nangona kukho ubuninzi bezibonelelo ezibonakalayo, zabantu nendalo, ingingqi yaba nokukhula kwemirhumo eguquguqukayo phakathi kweepesenti ezine ukuya kwezintandathu ngonyaka kule minyaka ingamashumi amabini (20)) idlulileyo, eyenza ukuba ingaphuhli ngokwaneleyo. Ngokwamanani avela kwiBhanki yeHlabathi nakuMbutho woQoqoshao lwamaShishini noPhuhliso (OECD), ukukhula kweGDP kwiAfrika ekwiSub-Sahara, ethe yenyuka yaya kwiipesenti ezi6.37 ngo2002, yehla ngamandla nge1.24 yepesenti phambi kokuba ivuseleleke kancinci ngeepesenti ezi2.8 ngo2019 yaze kananjalo yawela kuhlumo olungaluhlanga. Uphando oludlulileyo luqwalasele kwizizathu zokukhula koqoqosho, ngogxininiso olungephi olunikwe umgangatho weziko nobandakanyo lwemali njengezizathu eziphambili, ezazinokucacisa ukukhula okudanisayo kweSud-Saharan Afrika. Iindlela zeGeneralised Method of Moments (GMM) nephaneli Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), kwanegqiza leNdlela YeZilungiso zeZiphene (Error Correction Models) (ECM), zasetyenziselwa ukuphicotha ubudlelwane obubalulekileyo, ukuhlanganiswa kwexesha elide nelifutshane nokuthungelana kwezizathu, ngokwahluka, phakathi komgangatho weziko, ubandakanyo lwemali nokukhula koqoqosho kumazwe eSSA enziwe isampuli. Sayila isalathiso somgangatho weziko nesemali sisebenzisa uHlalutyo lwaMalungu aPhambili (Principal Components Analysis) (PCA). Iziphumo zabonisa ukuba imiphumela edibeneyo yobandakanyo lwemali, umgangatho weziko, kwanezinga lokuhla kunyuka kwamandla email, urhwebo oluvulelekileyo, izinga lentswelangqesho, inkcitho yotyalomali, umgangatho wesakhono sokufunda nokubhala, nentlawulo yezixhobo zemvelo, ziya kuchaphazela ukukhula koqoqosho kwizizwe ezikhethiweyo zeSSA. Uphando lukwaqinisekise ukuba kwakukho umahluko omkhulu kwixabiso lomyinge wokukhula koqoqosho phakathi kwamaxesha kabhubhane iCOVID-19 kunye nengxubakaxaka yemali kwihlabathi ngokuthelekiswa namaxesha apho ezo ziphazamiso zibalulekileyo zazingenzeki. Iziphumo zenkqubo enamanqanaba amabini yohlalutyo iGMM zidandalazise ubudlelwane obubalulekileyo phakathi komgangatho weziko, ubandakanyo lwemali nolawulo lwezinto ezitshintshayo kunye nokukhula koqoqosho kumazwe akhethiweyo, nangona amandla obu budlelwane bumiselweyo (olulungileyo okanye olungalunganga) babuxhomekeke kakhulu kwindlela yophando eyasetyenziswayo ukulinganisela ukukhula koqoqosho. Iziphumo zovavanyo zokuhlanganiswa kwegqiza iARDL zabonisa ukuba ukukhula koqoqosho, ubandakanyo lwemali nomgangatho weziko zahambelana kakuhle ixesha elide kwizizwe zeSSA ezikhethiweyo. Iziphumo zeemvavanyo zonobangela wegqiza zabonakalisa izizathu zexesha elide ezimbolombini zezinto ezitshintshayo, nanjengoko kungqinwe bubudlelwane obubalulekileyo bukanobangela phakathi kokukhula koqoqosho nomgangatho weziko kuwo omabini amaxesha angoku nawexesha elizayo, kwanobudlelwane obubalulekileyo bonobangela phakathi kokukhula koqoqosho nobandakanyo lwemali kwixesha elide. Nangona kunjalo, ngexesha elifutshane, uphando lwafumanisa ubudlelwane obungenamsebenzi phakathi kokukhula koqoqosho nobandakanyo lwemali. Iziphumo zemiba ephindaphindayo ye-ETC zazingentle kwaye zibalulekile ngokweenkcukachamanani, zithetha uzinzo olunamandla phakathi kwezinto eziguquguqukayo. Imiphumela yomgaqonkqubo wezi ziphumo zezokuba ukuze kukhuthazwe ukukhula koqoqosho nophuhliso kwizizwe zeSSA, ubandakanyo lwemali kufuneka lunyusiwe nomgangatho weziko kufuneka uphuculwe.; Sepheo se seholo sa thuto ena e ne e le ho hlahloba kamano pakeng tsa boleng ba mekgatlo, kenyeletso ya ditjhelete, le kgolo ya moruo dinaheng tse kgethilweng tsa Sub-Saharan African (SSA) ho tloha 2004 ho ya 2020. Sepheo se ne se le ho theha ka matla karolo eo boleng ba mekgatlo le ho kenyeletswa ha ditjhelete ho e phethang ho tsamaisa kgolo ya moruo wa Sub-Saharan African.Sena se ne se hlokahala ka lebaka la ditekanyetso tse sa tsitsang tsa kgolo ya moruo tseo dinaha tsa SSA di bileng le tsona le tse thibetseng sebaka sena ho leba ntshetsopeleng ya moshwelella. Le hoja sebaka sena se e-na le matlotlo a mangata haholo a sebaka, a batho le a tlhaho, sekgahla sa kgolo se nnile sa theoha pakeng tsa diphesente tse nne ho ya ho tse tsheletseng selemo le selemo dilemong tse 20 tse fetileng, e leng se etsang hore se be le tshetsopele e tlase.Ho ya ka dipalo tse tswang Bankeng ya Lefatshe le Mokgatlo wa Tshebedisanommoho le Ntshetsopele ya Moruo (OECD), kgolo e kopaneng ya GDP ya Sub-Saharan Africa, e ileng ya fihla sehlohlolong sa diperesente tse 6.37 ka 2002, e theohetse ho diperesente tse 1.24 ka 2016 pele e thuseha hanyane ho fihla ho diperesente tse 2.28 ka selemo sa 2019 mme ya fokotseha ka 20.Diphuputso tse fetileng di tsepamisitse maikutlo ho disosa tsa moruo tsa kgolo, ha ho hatellwa ho fokolang ho lebisitswe ho boleng ba mekgatlo le ho kenyelletswa ha ditjhelete e le disosa tse haufi, tse ka hlalosang kgolo e fokolang ya Sub-Saharan Africa.Katamelo tsa The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) le panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), hammoho le panel Error Correction Models (ECM), di ile tsa sebediswa ho hlahloba dikamano tsa ketsahalo ya dintho, kopano ya nako e telele le e kgutswanyane le dikamano tsa sesosa, ka ho latellana, pakeng tsa boleng ba mekgatlo, ho kenyeletsa dinaha tsa moruo le sampole ya SA.Re thehile sesupo sa boleng ba setheo le sesupo sa kenyelletso ya ditjhelete re sebedisa Principal Components Analysis (PCA). Diphuputso di bontshitse hore diphello tse kopantsweng tsa ho kenyelletswa ha ditjhelete, boleng ba mekgatlo, hammoho le sekgahla sa theko ya ditjhelete, ho buleha ha kgwebo, sekgahla sa ho hloka mosebetsi, ditshenyehelo tsa ditjhelete, boemo ba ho bala le ho ngola, le kakaretso ya rente ya disebediswa tsa tlhaho, di ama kgolo ya moruo dinaheng tse kgethilweng tsa SSA. Thuto ena e boetse e netefaditse hore ho na le diphapang tse kgolo ho boleng ba kgolo ya moruo dipakeng tsa nako ya sewa sa COVID-19 le koduwa ya ditjhelete tsa lefatshe ho latela dinako tseo ditshitiso tse kgolo di sa kang tsa etsahala.Diphetho tsa tlhahlobo ya mehato e mmedi ya GMM e ile ya senola dikamano tse kgolo pakeng tsa boleng ba mekgatlo, kenyeletso ya ditjhelete, le mefutafuta ya taolo le kgolo ya moruo dinaheng tse kgethilweng, le hoja matla a kamano ena ya boikemisetso (e ntle kapa e mpe) e ne e itshetlehile haholo ka mokgwa o sebediswang ho lekanya kgolo ya moruo.Diphumano tsa tlhahlobo ya kgokahanyo ya phanele ya ARDL di bontshitse hore kgolo ya moruo, kenyelletso ya ditjhelete, le boleng ba mekgatlo di ne di amana hantle ka nako e telele ditjhabeng tse kgethilweng tsa SSA. Diphetho tsa diteko tsa lebaka la phanele di bontshitse lebaka la nako e telele la mabaka a mabedi a mefutafuta, jwalo ka ha ho pakwa ke dikamano tse kgolo dipakeng tsa kgolo ya moruo le boleng ba mekgatlo ka nako e kgutshwane le ya nako e telele, le kamano e kgolo ya sesosa pakeng tsa kgolo ya moruo le kenyeletso ya ditjhelete ka nako e telele. Leha ho le jwalo, ka nako e kgutswanyane, thuto e fumane kamano e sa reng letho ya sesosa pakeng tsa kgolo ya moruo le kenyeletso ya ditjhelete. Diphetho tsa dinomoro tse atiswang tsa Error Correction Term (ECT) di ne di le mpe ebile di se bohlokwa ho latela dipalopalo, di fana ka maikutlo a botsitso bo matla hara mefutafuta. Ditlamorao tsa leano la diphetho tsena ke hore molemong wa ho matlafatsa kgolo ya moruo le ntshetsopele ya dinaha tsa SSA, kenyelletso ya ditjhelete e tlameha ho potlakiswa le boleng ba mekgatlo bo tlameha ho ntlafatswa. Abstracts and keywords in English, IsiXhosa and Southern Sotho 2022-10-30T00:00:00Z