https://ir.unisa.ac.za/handle/10500/2887 2026-05-05T15:30:25Z 2026-05-05T15:30:25Z Dlamini, Nomalungelo Nkhosingphile https://ir.unisa.ac.za/handle/10500/32148 2026-02-24T11:58:27Z 2025-08-12T00:00:00Z

The casual relationship between growth and disaggregate public expenditure in Eswatini Dlamini, Nomalungelo Nkhosingphile Public expenditure in the Kingdom of Eswatini appears to be increasing annually; however, it does not seem to be growing at the same rate as economic growth, which is concerning for a middle-income developing economy. Thus, the main objective of the study is to investigate the relation-ship between disaggregated public expenditure (which includes capital government expenditures and recurrent government expenditures) and economic growth. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to investigate the relationship between disaggregated government expenditures and economic growth in the Kingdom of Eswatini. The study examines this relationship empiri-cally using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on annual data for the period from 1980 to 2023, which tests the long-run and short-run relationships between these variables. Additionally, the study employs controls for variables such as the inflation rate, capital investment, human capital, population growth rate and a dummy variable to capture the COVID-19 pandemic. The Error Correction Model (ECM) is further employed to examine the long-run and the short-run relationships. The results of the study indicate that there is indeed a statistically significant positive relationship between recurrent government expenditures and economic growth in the long-run, while capital government expenditures and economic growth have a negative but statistically sig-nificant relationship in the short-run. After conducting the Granger Causality Tests, the study fur-ther observes that the economy of Eswatini follows Wagner’s law in that economic growth causes recurrent government expenditure and capital expenditures and the reverse is not true. The study therefore recommends that the government of Eswatini spends more on recurrent expenditures than it does on capital expenditures.

2025-08-12T00:00:00Z Oyesanya, Emmanuel Olalekan https://ir.unisa.ac.za/handle/10500/32147 2026-04-23T07:34:40Z 2025-11-13T00:00:00Z

Youth unemployment and crime creation in Nigeria: an exploratory study Oyesanya, Emmanuel Olalekan For ages, nations have had to deal with one form of crime or another, a phenomenon now referred to as the ‘darker side of humanity,’ which has led to an increase in the amount of literature available to guide this study. The traditional economic model of crime explains that a criminal act depends on the benefits of successfully committing a crime. Youths are people between the ages of 15 and 24, with a total of about one billion youths globally. One in five people globally falls within this age range. A staggering 90 percent of these youths are located in developing countries. This situation raises concerns about the potential implications of joblessness on youth behaviour and social stability. Unemployment may push some youths toward criminal activity as a means of survival or social expression. This study seeks to explore this possibility by investigating the relationship between youth unemployment and crime in Nigeria. Drawing from existing literature, newspapers, and secondary data from sources such as the National Bureau of Statistics, the World Bank, and official police crime records, the study examines whether rising unemployment among Nigerian youths significantly contributes to crime trends across the country. This study aims to explain the concepts of youth unemployment and crime, examine common crimes committed by youths in Nigeria, identify prevalent types of unemployment, explore the link between youth unemployment and crime, and determine the region with the highest crime rate. Using qualitative methods, charts, and tables, the study analyzes data spanning different periods to uncover patterns and potential causality. This study was driven by the persistent link between youth unemployment and crime in Nigeria. It employed relevant available data, charts and tables from trusted sources to explain and investigate the patterns and inform practical solutions. The results of this study indicate that Nigeria has a limited number of formal employment opportunities for its youths, resulting in criminal behaviour, especially offenses against property and persons, as seen by the substantial presence of youths in the criminal justice system. This unemployment crisis is a result of the high population density of young people and the limited formal job market. The study concludes by recommending integrated policy measures that prioritize youth employment

2025-11-13T00:00:00Z Mwale, Evaristo William David https://ir.unisa.ac.za/handle/10500/32131 2025-02-21T14:35:47Z 2024-04-01T00:00:00Z

The nexus of taxation and economic growth, income inequality and poverty : a macro and micro econometric approach for Zambia Mwale, Evaristo William David Sub-Saharan Africa faces a significant challenge in mobilising tax revenue to finance essential state functions, as many economies in the region fall below the minimum desirable tax-to-GDP ratio of 15%. Despite Zambia's relatively higher tax-to-GDP ratio compared to that of other regions, poverty and income inequality levels remain stubbornly high. This research study addresses this issue by examining the relationships between taxation, economic growth, poverty, and income inequality in Zambia. The study's objectives include investigating the short-term and long-term connections between taxation and economic growth, exploring the direction of causality, and analysing the influence of direct and indirect taxes on poverty and income inequality. Additionally, the study aims to construct a tax revenue forecasting model for Zambia and offer policy recommendations. To achieve these objectives, the researcher employed a combination of macroeconometric and microsimulation models, including vector error-correction models (VECMs), autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDLs), bunching techniques, and MicroZAMOD. This study makes several significant contributions to the literature by utilising a combination of macroeconometric and microsimulation models, incorporating mining sector revenues in the analysis, and providing revenue projections for Zambia. In addition, the study computes poverty and inequality multipliers for every additional 1 billion Kwacha in tax revenue. To unearth the effect of taxation and its redistributive effect on poverty and inequality, this study uses the MicroZAMOD. Furthermore, the study uses the Personal Income Tax (PIT) elasticities from bunching techniques to convert the MicroZAMOD from a static model to a dynamic model. The results reveal that there is evidence of bunching around the first bracket in the PIT. Key findings underscore PIT as a potent instrument for reducing inequality, while the value added tax (VAT) emerges as a significant revenue generator but is inefficient at reducing poverty. Excise taxes and the turnover tax (TOT) have marginal effects on poverty and inequality metrics. Notably, VAT is associated with a 0.45 percentage point increase in the national poverty rate for every billion Kwacha raised, while a 1 billion Kwacha of PIT revenue is associated with an average reduction of 0.68 percentage points in the Gini coefficient. Granger causality analysis suggests that PIT, the corporate income tax (CIT), VAT, changes in the copper price, and mining tax revenue have causal relationships with gross domestic product. (GDP), indicating that lagged values of these variables enhance the model's ability to predict GDP. Additionally, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis reveal the impact of shocks in these variables on GDP, with VAT notably contributing to GDP growth over time, while negative shocks in mining tax revenue consistently result in GDP decline. In the short run, corporate income tax and personal income tax negatively impact GDP growth, while value-added tax (VAT) and trade openness have positive effects. Conversely, mining tax revenue and government consumption show no significant short-term impact on GDP growth. Long-term analysis reveals that VAT, mining tax revenue, trade openness, and the exchange rate positively influence GDP growth, whereas personal income tax and oil price changes exhibit negative impacts This will be the first study to use these two approaches to model policy impacts in a developing country. Furthermore, this study offers essential insights for policymakers in Zambia and other developing countries by emphasising the importance of balanced taxation policies and targeted investments in key sectors for sustainable development and poverty reduction through the recommendation of empirical policy reform scenarios.

2024-04-01T00:00:00Z Mtolo, Zimvo https://ir.unisa.ac.za/handle/10500/31862 2024-10-28T10:42:11Z 2024-09-01T00:00:00Z

Empirical investigation of the effects of trade openness on poverty in South Africa and Lesotho Mtolo, Zimvo The study examined the impact of trade openness on poverty in South Africa and Lesotho separately. The study used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach with annual data from 1980 to 2019. The study used the consumption-based measure of poverty, measured by consumption expenditure as a target variable of investigation. The study further employed three measures of trade openness, which are sum of trade to GDP, the ratio of exports to GDP, and imports to GDP ratio. The use of three proxies of trade openness allowed the study to check the robustness of the results and to examine the individual effects of exports and imports on poverty. As a contribution to existing literature, the study included a dummy variable for Lesotho to capture the effect of the structural break that occurred from 1990 resulting from retrenchments of Lesotho nationals from South African mines. The overarching aim of the study is to contribute to the ongoing literature on the extent in which trade openness impacts poverty in South Africa and Lesotho, which are members of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). The pursuit of the present study, among other things, is motivated by SACU’s mandate highlighting the need to foster sustainable economic growth and development among member countries. Such a mandate is underpinned by a focus on generating employment opportunities and alleviating poverty in the SACU area. The study provides a comparison of how the impact of trade openness on poverty differs between South Africa which is an upper-middle income country and Lesotho which is a lower middle-income country. The comparison also considers if the results differ with different proxies of trade openness. The results show that for South Africa, in the long run and short run, trade openness does not lead to poverty reduction, irrespective of the proxy used to measure trade openness. Instead, in the long run, trade openness, proxied by the sum of trade to GDP and the ratio of imports to GDP, has a negative effect on poverty. In the short run, the sum of trade/GDP and exports/GDP are both insignificant to poverty while imports/GDP have a negative impact on poverty. For Lesotho, in the long run, sum of trade/GDP is insignificant to poverty while exports/GDP and imports/GDP have a positive effect on poverty. In the short run, the sum of trade/GDP has a positive impact on poverty, exports/GDP have a negative effect on poverty while imports/GDP are insignificant to poverty. The coefficient of the dummy variable is negative and significant in the short run, confirming the evidence of a structural break. These results suggest that policies adopted in South Africa have not brought significant poverty alleviation. This could be an indication of a situation where policies implemented over the past tend to prevent the poor from benefiting from the gains of trade openness. Based on the findings, the main recommendation for South Africa is that policymakers could review the policies in place and understand the unintended consequences of each policy on poverty reduction. Policymakers in Lesotho could ensure that they adopt policies that benefit the poor directly. If well implemented, such policies could provide relief that will protect the poor from short term adjustment costs arising from trade openness. In view of the overall findings, the current study, therefore, recommends that there be a critical review of policies to assess unintended consequences of trade openness that may lead to increased poverty and ensure alignment of policies to overall poverty reduction objectives. In this context, the study recommends that the mechanism of distributing gains from trade be reviewed to ensure that gains from trade openness, such that the returns from trade, including funds from SACU revenue, are invested towards poverty reduction

2024-09-01T00:00:00Z